Benchmark Week 2025 came to a close on Thursday, with an agenda spanning the full mine-to-grid supply chain.

Although the key themes from Day 1 and Day 2 remained relevant in the discussions, the final day introduced further key takeaways for attendees.

LFP and ESS are shaping the demand picture

Benchmark’s Chief Research Officer Adam Panayi opened the day highlighting that battery demand is expected to reach 1.6 TWh this year, driven not only by increased demand for electric vehicles but a growing energy storage market. Benchmark forecasts a seven-fold increase in battery demand between now and 2040.

Although there are a wide range of cathode chemistries available, LFP continues to dominate the market. Once thought of as only for entry-level EVs, the chemistry has rapidly developed and is found in an increasing number of EVs, even at higher price points.

The growth of the ESS market also lends support to LFP demand as the vast majority of grid-scale projects use the chemistry.

  • In 2018, ESS accounted for just 3% of battery demand. In 2025 this has risen to 19%.

“There is potential in the not-so-distant future for the ESS market to become the dominant market in terms of battery deployment overall,” Panayi said.

Global oversupply is not the full story

Although the global battery market is oversupplied into next decade, this belies the fact that this supply is unevenly distributed. China accounts for 84% of battery supply in 2025, despite representing just 56% of demand.

A similar concentration is seen in the midstream with China accounting for 84% and 90% of cathode active material and anode active material production, respectively, highlighting the need for more investment into domestic production in other regions.

Oversupply in the upstream has led to raw material prices falling dramatically from their 2022/2023 highs. Lithium prices are at ~$10,000 per tonne compared to their peak of $71,000 per tonne and higher at their peak due to supply exceeding demand by around 74%.

“Essentially what we’re seeing is oversupplied markets over the next several years into the  early 2030s, and that’s going to continue weighing on prices,” said Adam Webb, Benchmark’s head of battery raw materials.

Sustainability and circularity are still important

Conversations around sustainability tend to focus on carbon emissions. And although this is an important aspect of sustainability, it isn’t the only metric of relevance. The social aspect of sustainability is vitally important for mines to be able to operate successfully within the communities they are located. Failure to properly gain the social license to operate at the early stages will ultimately lead to the downfall of a project.

“You have to move slow to move fast,” Andrew Bogrand, a senior policy advisor for natural resource justice at Oxfam, told attendees. “If you rush things from the start, it can go wrong.”

Bogrand gave the example of mines that have been shut down because of protests which have “lost tens of millions of dollars, sometimes because they’re in resistance to paying, say, a million or two million at the start for a road project that the community asks for.”

Circularity, too, is an important aspect of the overall sustainability story. However the US has pulled back on key policies and tax credits from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act which makes getting investment for these projects harder.

“And so we need more accelerant […] to get those refiners and recyclers online,” Tina Jeffress, group manager for Energy and sustainability at Panasonic Corporation of North America, said  “And of course I think carrots work a lot better than sticks.”

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