The future of EV charging is a critical topic as the world shifts towards sustainable transportation. With the adoption of EVs, the demand for efficient and accessible charging solutions is ever more pressing. EV charging will prove crucial in shaping the convenience and feasibility of widespread EV adoption. This article will explore the future of EV charging, looking at emerging technologies, market predictions, and the global landscape of EV infrastructure.
The Current State of EV Charging
The future of EV charging is dependent on advancements in existing technologies. Charging technologies can broadly be split into two categories: AC charging, under 22kW, which is slower and more common, and DC fast charging, over 22kW, reaching up to 350kW and beyond.
As EV sales grow, so does the rollout of charging infrastructure. However, most installations to date have been AC chargers. All markets currently have a majority of slow chargers compared to fast chargers, as the former have been easier and cheaper to install.
Looking to the future of EV charging, it will be essential to overcome the challenges of slower charge times, limited charging location availability, and suitable grid connections. Addressing these issues will be crucial in ensuring the convenience and feasibility of widespread EV adoption.
Future Charging Technologies
The future of EV charging is dependent on both the charging technology itself and the battery technology of the vehicle. The technology reaching widespread adoption is ultra-fast charging. This provides the ability to charge a battery in a matter of minutes, drastically reducing charge times. However, this advancement relies on the development of batteries capable of handling rapid high-energy intake without degrading. As the cost of installing DC chargers decreases, we anticipate a more widespread rollout of these chargers globally.
Another emerging technology in the future of EV charging is V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) technology. This enables EVs to both draw power from the grid and supply energy back to it. V2G technology allows EV users to be part of a ‘virtual power plant’, helping to stabilise the grid during peak demand, supporting the integration of renewable energy by storing and releasing excess power, and providing an emergency power source during outages.
EV Trends for 2030
The state of the EV market also influences the future of EV charging. Recently, there has been a slowdown in growth in EV sales. However, sales will continue increasing, albeit possibly not as rapidly as previously anticipated. By 2030, it is projected that BEV and PHEV sales of passenger cars and light duty vehicles will reach 61% of sales in Europe, 41% in North America and 55% in China. In short there will be more EVs on the road, necessitating an increased number of chargers to support them.
How many EV chargers are needed by 2030?
The future of EV charging can hinge on consumer demographics and access to charging locations. Given the opportunity, most people would choose to charge their vehicles at home due to accessibility and often lower costs. However, public charge points play a crucial role in enhancing the long-range viability of EVs.
The US currently has just over 165,000 public charge points. By 2030, we forecast this to reach 1.01 million public charge points. Similarly, we expect the number of chargers in the EU, EFTA and UK grow strongly reaching 3.05 million by 2030. However, this is under the 3.5 million points the EU commission stated that should be installed by 2030 to support the growing EV fleet and CO2 targets.
The future market landscape charging
The future of the EV charging market will be shaped by the ability of charge point operators (CPOs) to achieve profitability. In Europe, the market is currently highly fragmented, with numerous players operating a small number of chargers. This fragmentation significantly hinders their profitability and long-term business prospects. Therefore, we anticipate the European market to undergo consolidation over time.
In contrast, the US has a much more consolidated network, with the top three players accounting for 71% of the market. Similarly, China also has a heavily consolidated market structure.
Challenges to the future charging markets
The future of EV charging presents significant challenges for CPOs, particularly in managing charger utilisation rates, which directly impact profitability. To enhance EV viability, chargers need to be strategically distributed across regions. However, certain areas experience higher utilisation rates than others, prompting CPOs to focus on locations with higher usage to ensure profitability. This can result in uneven distribution of chargers, a notable issue in China where urban areas have more chargers compared to rural regions.
Another critical challenge facing the future of EV charging is grid connection. Securing grid connections involves navigating complex procedures and enduring long wait times. Operating across wide geographical areas compounds this challenge, as CPOs must interact with multiple distribution network operators, each with its own application procedures. As a result, grid connection poses a significant bottleneck for CPOs and profoundly impacts the future scalability of EV charging infrastructure.
The EV and charging industries are both dynamic, constantly evolving to meet the growing demand and technological advancements. Consequently, the future of EV charging is continually shaped by these changes.
More Information
Rho Motion provides comprehensive, in-depth market analysis in EV and charging markets. For more information about charging markets and industry trends see our EV Charging Quarterly Outlook.