The Rho Motion Seminar Series London took place on the 27th of November. Adam Panayi, Managing Director of Rho Motion opened the day welcoming delegates. He outlined that the paring of Rho Motion and Benchmark gives a powerful research offering to understanding the energy transition. He went on to summarise key topics of the day stating the reality of the energy transition has bitten however growth remains positive in many regions.

View Recordings Here

Session 1 – EV market development in a changing policy environment

George Whitcombe, Research Analyst, Rho Motion

  • China continues to lead EV growth with record milestones in 2024, surpassing one million EV units sold in one month for the first time and reaching over 50% penetration in month.
  • Europe’s EV performance has been mixed. The rate of growth has slowed this year with a few months reaching negative YoY growth. This has been heavily influenced by poor German, Finish and Swedish markets. However, countries such Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK have seen strong gains this year.
  • Price disparity remains a key driver for EV sales, BEVs in Europe cost on average 75% more than ICE vehicles.

Dr Rebecca O’Sullivan, Scientific Policy Advisor, Office for Zero Emissions Vehicle, Department for Transport

  • The UK government is prioritising the transition to ZEVs so the country can gain the economic benefits and cleaner air.  So far over GBP2 billion has been invested to offset costs, enhance charging infrastructure, and accelerate policy-driven adoption.
  • The UK has over 1.2 million ZEVs, over 70,000 charging points, and 650,000 home chargers. ZEVs currently make up 3.2% of total vehicles on the road in UK. Second-hand EV demand is growing hugely in the UK.
  • To support EV adoption mechanic training is import, EV price parity with ICE vehicles and battery health assessment are key.
  • UK government with the UN, is developing global battery health regulation aiming to introduce minimum standards, and state of health monitors in vehicles.

Bryan Bille, Principal Policy and Geopolitical Analyst, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

  • The EV and battery supply chain is increasingly fragmented, driven largely by US policies.
  • Under the upcoming Trump presidency, expect aggressive trade policies, blanket tariffs, and “China derisking” to secure US supply chains. Restrictions on Chinese investments and executive orders to promote domestic manufacturing are likely.
  • China may redirect exports to Europe and connector economies, potentially causing overcapacity issues and trade barriers as trump likely to follow aggressive trade policies.
  • In the near future the EU will continue to prioritise resilience in the battery supply chain, defence, and economic competitiveness.

Session 2 – EV charging market dynamics

Jeanne Buée, Senior Research Analyst, Rho Motion

  • Market is trending towards DC fast charging worldwide, despite challenges for its implementation.
  • The US market is experiencing challenges with infrastructure growth falling behind, with an increasing EV-to-charger ratio signalling a lack of sufficient development.
  • In Europe rollout needs to accelerate and become more uniform. Retail charging, especially DC fast charging, is growing in synergy with shopping.

Michael Wilhelm, Corporate Development & IR, Wallbox

  • Actively operating in sales worldwide, with primary focus on Europe and the US.
  • Providing solutions for home, commercial, software, and fast-charging needs.
  • Quasar 2, a bidirectional charger, offers future potential in addressing grid issues and advancing energy management, though it is not yet widely commercialised.
  • Prioritising reliability and ease of installation for DC charging infrastructure.

James McKemey, Head of External Affairs, Pod Point

  • Pod Point’s mission is to make EV ownership easy and affordable for everyone, with a focus on the UK market.
  • Key issues to address for EV adoption include limited BEV choice, politicisation of education around EVs, and the rising cost of public DC charging, which is now more expensive per mile than petrol/diesel.
  • Charging speed is less important than it seems, as BEVs are stationary most of the time. 72% will charge at home, 30% at work, and 10% en-route, with en-route charging being the biggest concern.

Session 3 – The rapid rise of the ESS market

Iola Hughes, Head of Research, Rho Motion

  • BESS is the fastest-growing battery end-use currently. The EU, EFTA, and UK will deploy 200GWh of grid storage by 2030.
  • H1 2024 deployment matched the full 2022 deployment, with demand being highly seasonal, a strong Q4 is anticipated due to project completion deadlines in China.
  • The average size and duration of projects are increasing globally, with the US leading in average project size.
  • The price of LFP batteries and technology improvements have driven cost reductions within the industry with China seeing system prices below USD100 per kWh for the first time this year.

Maher Chebbo, Managing Director Europe, Univers

  • The integration of batteries with the grid involves many stakeholders, and standardisation will simplify procurement processes.
  • Certification, renewable monitoring, AI analytics, flexible storage, and aggregation are key areas, with goals to reduce operational and maintenance costs for commercial and industrial customers and optimise asset systems.
  • A “one-stop-shop” approach to bundling equipment, including digital, EPC, and financing partners, is crucial to grow the ESS market and reduce the chain length.

Michael Kilcoyne, Senior Growth Associate, Fluence Energy

  • Fluence has 11.1 GW of BESS installed globally across over 225 projects, with two optimisation software platforms focused on data insights and preventative maintenance.
  • The company is not vertically integrated and is technology agnostic, with Li-ion being the most competitive battery technology for the next few years.
  • Li-ion’s rising energy density and falling costs are driving high battery demand and increased investment, reinforcing a feedback loop that also boosts system-level applications and cybersecurity for grid future-proofing.
  •  The BESS portion of overall project costs has decreased from 64% in 2022 to around 42% in 2024, with overall project costs also falling, while performance now takes precedence over cost in battery selection. Long-duration storage demand is rising in markets like Italy, Ireland, and GB, driven by the increased use of renewables.

Aazzum Yassir, Director of Technology & Operations, Pulse Clean Energy

  • Pulse Clean Energy has 500 MW of projects in operation and construction, with a target of reaching 1,000 MW by 2028.
  • There is a structural need for flexibility in grid utility projects. Derisking options for investors include:
  • Revenue contracts: Provide cash flow contracts to increase returns, but do not fully protect against downside risks.
  • Revenue flows: Offer a minimum guarantee on project returns, but share some upside with the offtaker.
  • Revenue toll: Sell the entire outtake to one buyer, capping both upside and downside. This approach has gained popularity, as it guarantees returns while the offtaker assumes the risk of variations in output.

Session 4 – Battery technology roadmaps

Rory McNulty, Product Director, New Technology, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

  • Every battery technology has a role in the supply chain, emerging battery materials aim to optimise specific performance metrics,
  • Lithium, nickel, and cobalt markets are expected to face a supply deficit in the mid-term. Emerging technologies, such as improvements in material intensity and material diversification (e.g., moving from graphite to silicon), could help bridge the supply gap.
  • Sodium-ion batteries gained attention during high lithium prices, and despite shifts in market sentiment, development continues, with new technologies seen as complementary in meeting future demand.
  • “New technologies are complementary not competitive, in order to reach the demand of the future, emerging technologies are needed.”

David Keating, Sales Operations Manager, Echion Technologies

  • There is a significant unmet need for safe, fast-charging, long-life cells.
  • Mainstream technologies meet consumer demand but fail to address all electrification use cases, especially in industrial sectors.
  • Niobium anode material can address supply gaps in industrial applications.
  • Collaboration with cell manufacturers, pack makers, OEMs, and end users are crucial, with increasing education and awareness needed to drive the adoption of emerging technologies.

Session 5 – View from the upstream

Stefan Debruyne, Director of External Affairs, SQM

  • SQM is a leading global lithium and iodine producer, with a goal to produce carbon-neutral lithium by 2030 and carbon-neutral products by 2040.
  • Operates with one of the lowest carbon, water, and energy footprints in the lithium industry, quadrupling output while reducing brine usage by 30%.
  • SQM is the largest lithium refinery operator globally and top producer in 2024, holding 16% of the lithium mining market and 17% of the lithium chemical market.
  • It is expanding operations outside Chile with 10 projects in Australia, including a new refinery, and actively evalutiing 70 DLE methods.

Alban Letailleur, Head of Business Development, Lithium Projects, Imerys

  • Imerys is developing two lithium projects: the Emili project in France (LiOH: 34,000 tpa, production starting in 2029) and the British Lithium project in Cornwall (Li2CO3: 21,000 tpa, production starting in 2028).
  • Europe will remain in a lithium supply deficit due to challenges in mining, including limited resource knowledge, mining expertise, financing barriers, and public acceptance concerns.
  • Efforts to improve public perception include reducing the carbon footprint at mining stages, engaging communities, and demonstrating environmental and social responsibility through initiatives like tree planting, renewable energy, and affordable housing.

Session 6 – EV Motors and rare earths spotlight

Olatomiwa Olajide, Research Analyst, Rho Motion

  • There are four common motor types: PMSM (most widely used), EESM, induction motors, and reluctance motors. Key components: stator (stationary) and rotor (rotating).
  • PMSM dominates with over 80% market share, but induction motors are gaining traction.
  • EV motor sales projected to reach 22 million in 2024, with multi-motor configurations (dual, tri, and quad motors) contributing to growth.

Daan de Jonge, Product Director – Critical Minerals and Multi-Commodity, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

  • Rare earths are critical minerals, essential in applications like e-mobility, wind turbines, and defence, making them strategically important to major global economies.
  • The market is geopolitically significant, with China’s dominance posing risks; past incidents include supply weaponisation against Japan and disrupted US defence production.
  • Dependence on China remains high, supplying 60% of rare earth mining and nearly 99.9% of heavy rare earth processing, with state-owned enterprises dominating the upstream supply chain.

Session 7 Financing the energy transition

Edward Keith, Head of Consulting, Rho Motion

Rohit Kumar, Director-EV and Battery Sector, Standard Chartered

Bruce Huber, CEO, Alexa Capital

Anupam Sharma, Head – Energy and Infrastructure Finance, UK & Europe, Investec

William Labat-Labourdette, Managing Director, Transition Minerals, Metals & Batteries, Low Carbon Transition Group, BNP Paribas

  • Geopolitical issues, interest rates, and inflation are creating a challenging environment for capital and investment markets.
  • The upstream market faces risks across the value chain and significant technological challenges, requiring growth investors, subsidies, and effective risk management. Support from institutions like the European Investment Bank has been crucial.
  • Rapidly evolving technology in manufacturing increases costs and risks, necessitating flexibility and consideration for customers with long qualification periods to avoid negative cycles.
  • While there is strong appetite for debt finance in areas like ESS, financing structures have become more conservative. Success in Europe’s battery manufacturing sector will require selective private-sector-driven approaches rather than heavy reliance on government subsidies.