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As the EU’s 2025 emission standards are set to come into force this year, major automakers are looking to pool to avoid fines reaching into the billions. In documents released by the EU Commission, Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Subaru, Leapmotor and Mazda all intend to pool with Tesla creating a “Super pool” that could incorporate a third of Europe’s total vehicle market. In addition to this Mercedes Benz will pool with Volvo and Polestar.
From 2025, overall fleet emissions must reach 93.6 grams of CO2 per kilometre travelled, down from 106.6 grams in 2023. However, each automaker has specific targets relative to the average mass of vehicles it registers.
Automakers scrambling to avoid fines
Previously Rho Motion has calculated that based on 2024 sales performance automakers in Europe are facing fines totalling well over USD15 billion if changes are not made to the 2025 pooling or EV sales.
In the Telsa pool Subaru, Mazda and Ford are the most are the furthest away from their respective 2025 targets, while Toyota and Stellantis are closer. The pool itself accounts for 33% of the total vehicle market and 31% of the EV market in Europe.
“Considering 2024 sales, the Tesla pool significantly narrows the emissions gap for automakers within the group, bringing them to within just 4g of the target. Despite the weight of the world’s largest BEV manufacturer, this does not guarantee fines are avoided by this pool,” noted Will Roberts, Automotive Research Lead at Rho Motion.
Roberts added “Tesla has sold fewer vehicles in 2024 than 2023, a continuation of that trend would not be helpful. Furthermore, Toyota, Subaru and Mazda have all been slower to get BEVs on the road and with Toyota alone selling three times more vehicles than Tesla, the offset effect only goes so far. The size of the pool means any fine for the group will balloon quickly as this is a function of total sales by the pool multiplied by number of grams above target and 95 Euros.”
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Mercedes Benz pools with Volvo
Mercedes Benz previously pooled on its own, was facing fines of up to USD1 billion, as in 2024 it was 17.3g above its target. However, by pooling with Volvo and Polestar, using 2024 data, this pool was 1.3g over its target, meaning in 2025 the group will likely surpass the target.
The pool accounts for 8% of the total vehicle market and 20% of total EV sales in the EU. It benefits from a high enough EV penetration to utilise reduction mechanisms such as the ZLEV factor which increases the emissions target (making it easier), if more than 25% of vehicle sales have emission ratings below 50g CO2/km.
New pooling leaves uncertainty for other automakers
The emergence of the Tesla and Mercedes Benz pools leaves the future uncertain for other automakers. Players such as VW, BMW, Kia, Jaguar Land Rover, Hyundai, and Honda have yet to announce pooling plans for 2025. All are currently above the required targets for the year. With fewer pooling options available, these players may push for negotiations with the European Commission to mitigate potential fines.
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The commission remains in favour of the targets despite pushback
Industry automotive groups have called on the EU Commission to relax or delay the 2025 emissions targets, stating market conditions do not allow the standards to be met. These calls have been echoed by the Italian and Czech governments that both are seeking an earlier review of the 2035 combustion engine ban and the subsequently the 2025 targets. However, despite these calls the EU Commission has so far remained steadfast on its commitment to the 2025 and 2035 emission targets.
More Information
For more information about the EU’s emission standards get in touch or see our research.
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